Read What Alabama US Senate Candidate Roy Moore is Saying Now

We have the “privilege” of receiving information from highly distorted sources, but then the old adage is “know thy enemy”.  Here is the most recent fundraising appeal from Roy Moore. Read how strident it is since he has been cut-off from the more “establishment” Republican finance resources.

It reads like an appeal from Oral Roberts preventing God from taking him to heaven.  You will notice we removed the links because we really do not want anyone to follow them and contribute to this effort.

 

Friend,

It’s sad but true. . .

According to sources, establishment Republicans are colluding with the Obama-Clinton Machine behind-the-scenes in a desperate effort to sabotage my campaign and keep me out of Washington.

Fake news reporter Chuck Todd of NBC even called out McConnell for attempting to sabotage my campaign — referring to the recent attacks as an effort “orchestrated” by Mitch McConnell and his cronies.

Apparently Mitch McConnell and the establishment GOP would rather elect a radical pro-abortion Democrat than a conservative Christian as the next U.S. Senator from Alabama.

I’ve been abandoned by Washington’s establishment Republicans with just four weeks left before Election Day.

I must be able to count on the support of God-fearing conservatives like you to help me defeat the forces of evil seeking to crush out and destroy our conservative movement — starting with me on December 12.

So will you stand with me at this critical moment by chipping in a generous donation to my campaign?

The national DNC.

The Obama-Clinton Machine.

Billionaire George Soros and his army of radical left-wing foot soldiers.

And now Mitch McConnell, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the establishment GOP — the same Republicans who attempted to sabotage Donald Trump’s campaign — are gunning for me with everything they’ve got.

It’s getting nasty.

And I’m it’s only going to get worse the closer it gets to Election Day.

So won’t you please stand with me at this critical moment by chipping in the maximum donation you can afford — whether it’s $2,000, $1,500, $1,000, $750, $500, $250, $150, $100, $75, $50, $35 or $25 — to help me fight back and defeat McConnell and the Obama-Clinton Machine on December 12?

The good news is, national Tea Party and conservative leaders across the country are rallying behind me and my campaign.

In fact, my good friend, Congressman Steve King of Iowa, slammed the gaggle of anti-Trump Republican Senators attempting to gut me and my campaign behind the scenes:

But that’s not all.

The good people of Alabama are smarter than the liberal media and the GOP establishment.

They know Mitch McConnell and his cronies dropped nearly $30 MILLION to defeat me during our hard-fought primary campaign.

But more importantly, voters understand the outcome of this election is about far more than Alabama.

The good people of Alabama know the outcome of this election could determine the future of our country.

And they’re rising up in droves and rallying behind me, my family and my campaign.

That’s why, if I can raise the resources to counter the filthy and disgusting attacks and get the truth out directly to voters across Alabama, I’m confident you and I can defeat McConnell and the Obama-Clinton Machine on December 12.

I need your support right now more than ever.

Stand with me at this critical moment by chipping in the maximum donation you can afford at once.

Thank you in advance for all you do!

Sincerely,

Judge Roy Moore

Frey Wins with Plurality

As expected the race in Minneapolis produced a plurality victor with Council Member (Ward 3) Jacob Frey (DFL) eventually receiving 44.69%. He was followed by Rep. Raymond Dehn (DFL-59A, Minneapolis) eventually had 33.46%. Incumbent Mayor Betsy Hodges (DFL) was dropped after the 4^th ballot. When the total votes were cast and counted 22,835 votes were labeled as Exhausted and 21.85% of the voters on this ballot could have stayed home because their votes did not matter int he final outcome.

Here are the breakdowns.

5^th Round (Hodges defeated)

Jacob Frey                           46,716   44.69%

Raymond Dehn                 34,971    33.46%

4^th Round (Hoch defeated)

Jacob Frey                           39,368   37.66%

Raymond Dehn                 27,358    26.17%

Betsy Hodges                     26,875   25.71%

3^rd Round (Levy-Pounds Defeated)

Jacob Frey                           29,480   28.20%

Raymond Dehn                 24,028   22.99%

Betsy Hodges                     23,511   22.49%

Tom Hoch                            22,754   21.77%

2^nd Round (Al Flowers, Aswar Rahman, Captain Jack Sparrow, Charlie Gers, Christopher Robin Zimmerman, David John Wilson, David Rosenfield, Gregg A. Iverson, Ian Simpson, LA Nik, Ronald Lischeid, Theron Preston Washington, Troy Benjegerdes, UWI)

Jacob Frey                           26,750   25.69%

Raymond Dehn                 18,574   17.77%

Betsy Hodges                     19,467   18.62%

Tom Hoch                            20,912   20.01%

Nekima Levy-Pounds      16,189   15.49%

1st Round

Jacob Frey                           26,116   24.89%

Raymond Dehn                 18,101   17.32%

Betsy Hodges                     18,915   18.10%

Tom Hoch                            20,125   19.25%

Nekima Levy-Pounds        15,716   15.04%

In St Paul a Majority Result with a Minority People Ranking Their Vote. In Minneapolis Just the Opposite

In St Paul a Majority Result with a Minority People Ranking Their Vote, In Minneapolis Just the Opposite

The participation rate in Ranked Voting in St Paul shows less than 50% of the people used the system.  Yesterday, 54.36% of the voters did not rank their vote. The rejection of the opportunity shows the following:

Total voters on the          1st ballot                  61,641

2^nd ballot              28,135                   45.64%

3^rd ballot              20,454                   33.18%

4^th ballot                9,909                   16.08%

5^th ballot                5,447                   08.84%

6^th ballot                3,539                     5.74%

In Minneapolis, the numbers were more robust.

Total voters on the          1^st ballot               103,503

2^nd ballot                91,513                 88.42%

3^rd ballot                77,516                 74.89%

Carter Poised to Win

Melvin Carter III (DFL) said to the gathered throng of supporters, “We are standing on the intersection of St Paul’s past and future.”

With 94 out of 96 precincts reported. Carter leads with 31,264 for 51.03% over Pat Harris with 15,194 for 24.80%

Eyes on a City Council Race in the Zenith City

While national and state politicians are wound up over healthcare and gun laws, there’s a small, yet significant election getting the attention of social media patrons in Duluth.

Ryan Sistad, a 23-year-old project manager for a local union contractor, is running against current Duluth City Council President Joel Sipress, a six-year incumbent, for the 2nd District seat on the Duluth City Council. This is the first election where Sipress has had a challenger – he first selected by the City Council through a Ranked Choice method. This now seems odd, remember Duluth voters rejected Rank Choice Voting in 2015 by 75%.

Sistad entered the race late – filing within the last minutes of the final day – and without fanfare according to the Duluth News Tribune. Within a few weeks, he had put together a Facebook page and began drawing in an audience. In three short months, he has amassed more followers on his Facebook page than his opponent. And, according to a recently-released campaign finance report, his campaign outraised the incumbent in less than 3 months.

Sistad’s first Facebook post in early September states his intention of running a respectful campaign, focused on local issues. A quick peruse of his candidate page validates he has largely held-up his end of the bargain. While there are several questions raising issues related to his supporters or position, Sistad has repeatedly defended against disrespectful allegations and various inquiries relating to state and national issues.

This past weekend, Claire Kirch wife of Sipress, launched vicious remarks through social media regarding Sistad’s donors and the presumed intentions of his campaign, alleging he had been “bought by” his campaign donors. Over the course of the next several days, verbal attacks were shot across both bows, with rare, if any, interaction from the candidates themselves. A quick review of social media would demonstrate the Sipress campaign, or rather Sipress’ wife, had launched the majority of the social media attacks.

At the heart of the attack was a Sistad donor – successful local businessman, Brian Maki, of Lakehead Constructors. Lakehead Constructors, a regional union contractor, has a long legacy of working on the Iron Range and in Duluth. Ironically, Sipress’ campaign materials, he holds the DFL endorsement for the election, in spite of the fact he was a Green Party person in the past. While Sipress have the endorsement, there are few social posts connecting his campaign with the other local DFL endorsed candidates.

It’s impossible not to draw a connection to an event which unfolded in August. Sipress engaged in a heated private message conversation that went public. Sipress had choice words (F-Bomb) with a local elected official, Justin Perpich, relating to a local special interest group, Duluth for Clean Water, and the lack of required campaign finance disclosure. Sipress is a champion of the group and is one of the endorsed candidates. While subsequent online petition gathered more than 400 supporters calling for the resignation of Sipress as the City Council President ensued, the dust settled and life moved on in Duluth.

Duluth voters in the 2nd District – a large, diverse district – face a choice tomorrow. Vote for the incumbent – who’s views may either be his own self-proclaimed socialist views, his wife’s or those of the special interest group that endorses him. Or Sistad – the youthful, inexperienced candidate backed by the business community.

Soon the voters will decide who becomes the voice at the table for the small, seemingly insignificant District race in Duluth.

How Minneapolis Ward Five Should Take a Lesson from St Paul Ward One

In the 2015 Special Election in St Paul Ward One, there were three African American candidates two Hmong candidates. The result was the election of Dai Thao (DFL), and the main reason the seat shifted from being a traditional African-American seat held by Bill Wilson, Jerry Blakey, Debbie Montgomery, and Melvin Carter III was due to the community failing to come together.

But because of Ranked Voting, the African-American community remained split and did not consolidate in the end. They lost out to Thao because their Effective Vote was diminished and the voters who supported Montgomery and Johnny Howard didn’t vote for Noel Nix.

The same scenario happened in Minneapolis Ward Five in 2013 and the stage is set to occur again. The Incumbent Blong Yang (DFL) has three challengers from the African-American community, which is clearly the largest voting bloc in this Ward.

If the supporters of Jeremiah Ellison (DFL), Cathy Spann (DFL), and Raeisha Williams (DFL) fail to cast their votes for each of the other African American candidates Vang will win reelection. Based on the fact Ellison, like Carter III in St Paul, has family members already in office father Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN05) and Minneapolis School Board member Kim Ellison (DFL) their name is well known in the community. By all reports we have gathered in spite of the lack of experience Ellison can grow into the job.

All three camps should instruct their voters to rank all three and let the chips fail where they may, but at least it will be on one side of the table.

What Ranked Voting Actually Does

Political scientists are quick to remind people to “Beware the unintended consequences,” as will we. Here is little understanding of the ills of Ranked Choice Voting.

If you read articles explaining the process of Ranked Choice Voting and if it were so darn simple, why do people need to keep writing these public service articles explaining the process? Today in MinnPost, is a primer The lazy person’s guide to ranked-choice voting in Minneapolis and St. Paul and last week was the following story Has ranked-choice voting lived up to its promise in the Twin Cities?

We will say this now and to be clear, whatever the result in each contest Minneapolis or St Paul, the overall vote total will need to be reduced by the number of votes that are dropped from the ballot. Dropped from the ballot you say and we say yes. If a voter selects a candidate who does not come in either 1^st or 2^nd place as their final choice, their vote is effectively tossed aside. In Minneapolis, it is called an Exhausted Vote and in St Paul, the term is an Unassigned Vote.

The basic gist is these people need not have even shown up to vote and they played no role in the final outcome so we call on people, to be honest, and report the “Effective Vote.” Take the first-round vote total subtract the votes that didn’t matter in the end and report the result. Because this is the truth.

This will likely mean there is no majority victor in either city and the size of the voter turnout is also effectively reduced.

Ramsey County Elections Director Joe Mansky must be the eternal optimist. He is quoted in the Pioneer Press expecting 58,000 voters when the last two mayoral elections have shown 31,175 in 2013 (With Ranked Voting) and 34, 411 in 2009 (Without Ranked Voting).

He may be going back to the yesteryears of contested elections in St Paul. When we look at the Wayback machine we see the following. The 2001 St Paul Mayoral open seat contest between Randy Kelly (DFL) and Jay Benanav (DFL) the vote total was 59,235. In the 2005 St Paul Mayoral Contest between Randy Kelly (DFL) incumbent and challenger Chris Coleman, the vote total was 59,154.

We inquired why Mansky would expect such a dramatic result and learned his numbers are 25% of the eligible voters, not the registered voters. This is something we would expect as well if it were a hard-fought two-person contest. Where each side defines its candidate and the other side seeks to differentiate their candidate from the opponent.

While the population of the Capitol City has increased by a significant margin, the number of registered voters have remained virtually flat. Today, there are 156,535 pre-registered voters with the same day still occurring. In 2015, there were 151,966 registered voters with 1290 same day, 2013, 156,231 registered voters of which 1280 registered the same day, and in 2011 156,482 with 1513 same day.

As we have said we expect between a 28.7 to a 26.8% turnout of the registered voters which will result in a total vote of between 45-42,000 voters. Again, if the numbers are higher than the Effective Voters must be taken into account.

Early Voting in Minneapolis and St Paul Through the Weekend

The early vote totals for Minneapolis through Sunday were 10,645 from a registered voter roll of 253,735, keeping in mind people can register to vote at the polls. 

Comparatively, there were 2,774 early votes in St Paul from a pre-registered voting roll of 156,535.  St Paul was not open on Sunday.

 

Early Voting Numbers One Week Out

Early voting numbers with one week to go in Minneapolis are 7260 and there have been 2,446 in St Paul.