Hagedorn’s Chances 2016, Slim to None

In 2014, Jim Hagedorn (R) defeated Aaron Miller (R) to contest again Congressman Tim Walz (D-01). In a beneficial year for Republicans, Walz trounced Hagedorn by 19,315 votes or 8.52%. In 2016, a Presidential election year, Hagedorn has announced his intent to try again in his attempt to follow in his father’s footsteps. Congressman Tom Hagedorn (R-MN01) 1977-1982, defeated by state Senator Tim Penny (D-New Richland).

We expect the margin will widen and Hagedorn, may lose by double digits. We expect there will be more than 250,000 people who vote in the 1st Congressional district and as the numbers increase it is proven to be an advantage to Democrats.

Additionally, this could also be helpful to Democratic legislative candidates in the district. A competitive race at the Congressional District level will increase the turnout in those respective districts as well.

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